Sunday, 23 October 2011

You can make stats say anything you want...

...60% of people know that.

Stats in football are big business, companies like Prozone and Opta have made big money through providing in-depth analysis of player/team performance.  It is claimed that by using live stats as the game is being played has led to more than one manager making a substitution when a players performance has begun to drop.  The stats are also used as a safety net and can be used to show when a players performance is beginning to drop and potential injuries can be identified.

Obviously in the hands of the professionals these stats are vital and can provide a valuable insight into what is and isn't working, and also how the next opponents like to play...however, its is also made far far too easy for the media to get hold of useless facts, the classic being 'X haven't beaten Y for more than fifty years'...but if they've only had one game in the last fifty years that's not quite such an impressive stat, or even if they haven't actually ever played...for example, did you know that Accrington Stanley have not ever been beaten by Egyptian giants Zamalek in a competitive fixture, wow!

Sometimes though we the stats masters deal in half truths and spin...Opta's stat of the day for today was that Gervinho had a 100% pass completion rate against Stoke in his 66 minutes on the pitch...sounds pretty impressive, especially since Arsenal ended the game with 60% possession, the boy must have put in quite a shift and been popping off passes left, right and centre...however when you scratch the surface, you find that he in fact made a mere 22 passes during his 66 minutes...for those of you not of a mathematical persuasion, that's about a pass every 3 minutes...what was he doing for the rest of the time?  The criticism has already been leveled at him that perhaps he is a little bit greedy, and from the games I have seen him play this sounds about right, picking up the ball in a wide position, taking on two or three men and ending up in a blind alley or hitting a somewhat pathetic looking shot straight at the keeper.

At the end of the day I shouldn't complain too much, it doesn't do me any harm to fill my head with useless information, if I'm being honest it isn't going to be replacing anything I'll miss (as long as I can still remember all the words to the John Barnes rap I'll be fine)...but maybe instead of stats, commentators should have little crib sheets on each player that they can lift a pointless bit of trivia off when the teams are lining up in the tunnel. Nothing earth shattering, maybe just a little ditty like "Anderson has only ever used two facial expressions since the age of 7, angry and close to tears"....or just make it up.


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